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The
Vaporware Economy
Vaporware is one of my all time favorite terms. Back
in the old days when I was in the information technology
world, we used it to refer to manufacturer's products
that existed in word or paper, but not physically.
For
a long time I have listened to the intelligencia
explain how America was transitioning to from a
manufacturing/production economy, to a services economy,
and now on to an information/financial economy. Going
from the dirty environmentally unfriendly world of
making things to the higher level, pristine, green world
of knowing about things and having money. We have been
told that any nation can make things, that indeed many
if not most are better (cheaper, higher quality, etc.)
at it than America. That America’s new
economic horizon is the information we create, posses
and know how to utilize. Information is king, that
the possession of, and ability to make use of
information, is our value and our future. This
concept permeates many facets of our nation. The herds
require buzz words & buzz thoughts to guide them as
onward they march. The business world, with its vast
legions of management, that knows nothing about the
company’s products, march in endless legions of
consultants to tell them what to do next. Hell even our
military buys into it, the thought of push button,
satellite guided, robotic warfare, keeping or troops out
of harms way is virtually irresistible.
Back
in the 80’s I worked for a large insurance company. They
insured over 50 million Americans. They had massive data
processing centers with multi-million dollar mainframe
computer systems and hundreds and hundreds of washing
machine sized disk drives. Today, a scant 20 years
later, I have more raw computing power and disk storage
capacity on my desktop than that company had. From an
information perspective, I could move that entire
company to any where in the world in a day merely by
picking up my PC and boarding an airplane.
Information has no natural home.
So I pose the question, will we be better off when we
have ridded ourselves from the production of physical
products, and have become a nation who produces no
physical products, we just create and process
information?
Well, you can’t eat thoughts, ideas won’t shelter you
from the rain, and copyrights won’t make you warm or get
you to work today. A lawsuit won’t stop a thief.
Will we be better off? When I was in
college, oh so long ago, everyone was decrying our
balance of trade deficit, in particular at the time with
Japan. Our professor summed it up this way…an American
buys a Japanese TV, we have the TV, they have an IOU,
good only if we honor it. Physical possession is
nine tenths of the law, doesn’t that hold for our
economy?
Somehow, somewhere, when times get rough, just as we
will find we’ll need soldiers on the ground, we will
find that we need to be able to make our own stuff. Look
at World War II. Europe and the Far
East where under the control of the Axis Powers
(with notable exceptions like England). The United
States tipped the War to the Allies because
it was self-contained economic juggernaut
that supplied everything from tanks, to oil, to food. We
out produced our enemies and thus the Allied Armies
where able to be victorious. If we found our
selves in that position today, the World at war, Europe
& Far East over-run and the hands of our enemies, would
the outcome be the same? I think not. Those
who have not learned the lessons of history are bound to
receive painful refresher courses. Apparently
the Type Ones
have learned a lot, how about the rest of us?
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